REVIEW OF THE NATO SUMMIT (2023)

The study notes that the NATO summit in Vilnius (2023) marks a transition from the classic model of a defence alliance to a comprehensive system of security and competition management.

The first key level is a clear distinction between strategies regarding Russia and China:

• Russia is defined as a direct military threat requiring deterrence through military instruments (deployment of forces, missile defence/air defence, increased defence spending, 300,000 troops on standby);

• China is defined as a systemic competitor, to whom a more complex model is applied: a combination of competition, engagement and containment.

The second level is a three-component logic of competition:

1. The conventional arms race (strengthening the eastern flank, Ukraine as a factor in the attrition of the Russian Federation);

2. The technology race (AI, space, cyber, biotechnology — as a key arena of global rivalry);

3. Control of the nuclear dimension (avoiding a new nuclear arms race whilst maintaining deterrence).

This means that NATO is transitioning from a ‘military bloc’ to an integrated security system (military + technological + economic).

The third level — NATO’s globalisation:

• engaging partners from the Asia-Pacific region (Japan, South Korea, Australia);

• expanding cooperation with the EU;

• focus on the Middle East and Africa;

• addressing hybrid threats (cyber, infrastructure, energy).

In other words, NATO ceases to be a purely Euro-Atlantic alliance and transforms into a global security network.

The fourth level — conflict management:

• The Alliance does not seek direct confrontation with Russia;

• maintains channels of communication;

• at the same time, it systematically increases pressure (military, economic, political).

Within this logic, Ukraine plays the role of:

• an operational space for containing Russia;

• an instrument for reducing Russia’s military potential;

• but without moving towards full integration at this stage.

Fifth level — institutional transformation of NATO:

• increased defence budgets (≥2% of GDP);

• expansion of planning (regional defence plans);

• integration of new domains (cyber, space);

• strengthening intelligence coordination.

Conclusion: The NATO Summit in Vilnius consolidates the transition to a model of
long-term, managed global competition,
where security is ensured not only by military force, but through a combination of military, technological and economic instruments.

Key framework:

• Russia — the target of containment and attrition;

• China — the target of systemic competition whilst maintaining interdependence;

• NATO is at the heart of a global coalition network.

The Alliance is shifting from a reactive approach to a proactive approach to managing risks and competition. Strategically, this means:

• wars are becoming localised (Ukraine as an example);

• competition is unfolding globally (technology, economy, infrastructure);

• control over the rules of the system remains with the West.

Systemic conclusion: NATO is transforming from a defensive alliance into a global instrument for managing multidimensional competition, where military power is just one element of a broader architecture of influence.

On NATO:
• on nuclear weapons;
• on its own armaments;
• on new technologies;
• on additional threats and concerns;
• on the future of the alliance;
NATO – Russia
NATO – China
NATO – regions
CONCLUSION

On 4 July 2023, NATO member states extended Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s term as head of the alliance for a further year, until 1 October 2024.

On 11 July 2023, the leaders of the 31 NATO countries and Sweden began a two-day summit in Vilnius, the main topics of which were discussions on plans to support Kyiv in its confrontation with Russian aggression and the approval of plans for the military deployment of large NATO forces near the borders with Russia, as well as the adoption of legal commitments under these plans to increase defence spending. Earlier, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the leaders of the alliance’s member states would approve three new regional defence plans at the summit in Vilnius on 11–12 July to combat the main threats: terrorism and Russia. According to him, in the north, the defence plan will cover the Atlantic and the European Arctic. The central region covers the Baltic and Central Europe. The southern plan, ‘ ’, is designed for the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions. According to Stoltenberg, to implement these plans, NATO allies must maintain 300,000 troops on high alert, including significant air and naval capabilities. According to media reports, these secret plans, which run to thousands of pages, describe how the alliance intends to respond in the event of an attack by Russia.

Allies from the Asia-Pacific region were also invited to the NATO summit. Earlier (07/07/23), John Kirby, the White House National Security Council’s Coordinator for Strategic Communications, stated that the invitation of US allies in the Asia-Pacific region to the NATO summit in Lithuania (Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan) is not a message to China. ‘This is not about sending a message to China. All these countries also support Ukraine, of course, in different ways. But you have seen how, at recent summits, the alliance has spoken of the challenge posed by the PRC on the European continent. So there is nothing unusual about the fact that there will be a discussion or discussions at the summit about China and the challenges it faces on the European continent. And these countries, these countries of the Indo-Pacific region, have unique experience of engaging with China and can bring a valuable perspective to this discussion,” he said.

The Russian side reacted quite sharply to such statements by NATO representatives, noting that NATO’s new defence plans for many years to come would cement the alliance’s confrontational stance towards Russia.

On 11 July 2023, the leaders of the North Atlantic Alliance issued a declaration following the NATO summit in Vilnius.

The main areas of focus in this declaration can be broadly outlined as follows: NATO (nuclear weapons, its own armaments and forces, additional threats and concerns, new technologies, the future of the alliance), NATO–Russia relations, NATO–China relations, and NATO–regions relations.

It is worth noting that NATO’s strategy for deterring adversaries and rivals identifies the ‘technology race’ as a priority area within the broader concept of the ‘arms race’. The ‘conventional arms race’ is also intensifying. At the same time, in terms of strategic stability, the strategy envisages preventing (for the time being) the development of a ‘nuclear arms race’.

Next — an overview of the key points from the communiqué, a series of statements and the initial reaction from opponents.

ON NATO

On nuclear weapons

The issue of strategic stability (nuclear weapons). NATO links collective security to the Alliance’s possession of nuclear weapons and adheres to the provisions of the NPT.

Declaration:

• described the prospect of their use of nuclear weapons as extremely remote;

• called for a moratorium on the production of fissile materials;

• described the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) as incompatible with the policy of deterrence; the summit participants emphasised that the TPNW has no legal force for the Alliance countries. NATO supports the ultimate goal of building a world free of nuclear weapons in full accordance with the provisions of the TNP, which does not undermine collective security.

• fear the use of nuclear or chemical weapons against them;

• agreed to strengthen arms control.

Reaction from opponents:

In response to NATO’s statement, published after the first day of the summit in Vilnius, the Chinese diplomatic mission to the EU stated that China is concerned by NATO’s assertions that it is a ‘nuclear alliance’, as this will further exacerbate regional tensions. It is noted that “China calls on NATO to keep pace with the times, heed the international community’s just call for peace, development and cooperation, correct its misperceptions and policies, and play a constructive role in ensuring peace and stability throughout the world”.

On its own armaments and forces

The issue of the ‘arms race’ (conventional weapons). The main emphasis is on defence: strengthening missile defence and air defence capabilities, increasing critical ammunition stocks, significantly expanding defence procurement, the ability to deploy significant military forces on the Alliance’s eastern flank — deterring Russia, which poses a direct threat to security.

Declaration:

• Agreed to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence;

• Plans are in place to increase the number of missile defence command posts in Europe;

• Plans are in place to enhance missile defence and air defence capabilities against drones and hypersonic missiles; NATO will strengthen its missile defence system in Europe, in particular through the deployment of modern systems on a rotational basis.

• It was decided to significantly increase stocks of critical ammunition.

Statements:

• NATO leaders have approved a plan to deploy 300,000 troops on the alliance’s eastern flank and to significantly expand defence procurement.

• The updated regional defence plans of the North Atlantic Alliance, approved at the NATO summit in Vilnius, are to be implemented by the end of 2024. This decision was taken at a meeting of the alliance’s defence ministers, the Lithuanian Ministry of Defence reported.

• The North Atlantic Alliance has adopted decisions that will allow for the deployment of around 100,000 troops to Poland in the event of a real threat to the country. This was emphasised by Polish President Andrzej Duda at a press conference following the NATO summit.

• The North Atlantic Alliance has decided to station weapons depots in Poland for those forces that may be deployed to the country in the event of a threat.

On additional threats and concerns

The issue of countering hybrid threats. The focus is on hybrid threats (including cyberattacks) and the fight against terrorism (a direct asymmetric threat to security). Disruptions to energy supplies are also recognised as a threat to security.

Declaration:

• they have pledged to apply the principle of collective defence in the event of serious cyberattacks;

• they fear that hybrid threats may escalate into armed attacks;

• promised to establish a centre to protect vital critical underwater infrastructure;

• they stated the need to combat terrorist organisations. ‘Terrorism in all its forms and manifestations is the most direct asymmetric threat to the security of our citizens and to international peace and prosperity,’ the document emphasises. NATO member states also tasked the North Atlantic Council with updating the Alliance’s counter-terrorism policy and, in consultation with partners in the region, assessing the areas in which NATO can provide civil-military assistance.

• They plan to continue striving for the diversification of energy supplies.

On cutting-edge technologies

The issue of the ‘technology race’. Particular attention was paid to the development of breakthrough technologies in the fields of space, AI, biotechnology, etc., which are identified as key areas of global competition. Emphasis is placed on Japan’s involvement in cooperation with NATO in these fields.

Declaration:

• it was stated that new breakthrough technologies present both opportunities and risks, are becoming increasingly strategic in importance, and are emerging as key areas of global competition;

• agreed to accelerate the integration of space into the collective security framework;

• intend to develop strategies for action in the fields of quantum and biotechnologies, as well as human enhancement technologies;

• intend to use military and non-military instruments to respond to threats. The organisation relies on missile defence capabilities, as well as nuclear and conventional weapons, which are complemented by capabilities in cyberspace and space, the statement said.

Statements:

• Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius that he welcomes the agreement on a new plan for cooperation between Tokyo and the alliance. According to the Yomiuri newspaper, the cooperation plan between Japan and NATO provides for the development of cooperation in the field of cyber security and space satellites. In addition, the parties intend to jointly develop rules for the use of artificial intelligence technologies in weaponry.

• Japan and NATO have announced a new Individually Tailored Partnership Programme (ITPP) covering 16 areas, the Kyodo news agency reported. The document covers areas such as cyber security, space security, as well as increased participation in NATO exercises, particularly in the fields of cyber security and information manipulation, and joint efforts to provide emergency assistance during natural disasters and conflicts. Information sharing will be strengthened, which should facilitate cooperation. In addition to traditional areas of cooperation, such as maritime security and non-proliferation, the document highlights cooperation in countering disinformation regarding the latest destructive technologies, particularly those involving artificial intelligence. The Individually Tailored Partnership Programme (ITPP) is an extension of the Individual Partnership and Cooperation Plan first concluded in 2014. It will run for four years from 2023 to 2026 and will reflect the impact of the situation in the Indo-Pacific region on security issues in the Atlantic and the strengthening of cooperation to preserve the global order, the agency explains.

On the future of the Alliance

The issue of strengthening the Alliance’s influence. The main focus is on strengthening cooperation between the intelligence services of member states and partners.

Declaration:

• the next summit is scheduled for 2024 in Washington and 2025 in the Netherlands;

• they plan to open an office in Geneva to strengthen cooperation with the UN;

• will strengthen cooperation between the intelligence services of member states and partners;

Statements:

• Pierre-Alain Elchinger, a spokesperson for the Swiss Foreign Ministry, stated that Switzerland had taken note of NATO’s announcement regarding the possible opening of an office in Geneva, emphasising that discussions on the matter are currently underway.

NATO – RUSSIA

NATO has identified Russia as a direct threat to security not only for the Alliance but also to stability across the entire Euro-Atlantic region, highlighting the impact of military integration between Russia and Belarus on the Alliance’s defence. NATO called on all countries to cease any assistance to the Russian Federation during the special military operation, specifically highlighting accusations against Iran that it is providing military support to the Russian Federation. The Alliance emphasised that it would continue to work on instruments to counter Russia, but does not seek direct confrontation with it.

Strategy towards Russia (deterrence strategy): strategic stability (preventing a ‘nuclear arms race’) + ‘conventional arms race’ (weakening Russia’s capabilities through the conflict in Ukraine) + ‘technology race’ (NATO+EU+allies) + ‘partial isolation’ (economic, political, military).

Declaration:

• Russia has been named the most serious and direct threat to the security of the Alliance, to the security of its allies, and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region;

• NATO does not seek confrontation with Russia and does not pose a threat to it, but cannot regard the Russian Federation as a partner in light of current events;

• NATO wishes to continue to maintain open channels of communication with Moscow to reduce risks and prevent escalation.

• Russia was urged to reconsider its decision to withdraw from the CFE Treaty;

• The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus was condemned;

• noted the impact of military integration between Russia and Belarus on the Alliance’s defence;

• Moscow was also urged to withdraw its peacekeepers from Transnistria;

• countries noted Russia’s significant military capabilities in the Arctic;

• stated that Iran continues to provide military support to Russia;

• announced work on measures to counter Russia;

• called on all countries to cease any assistance to the Russian Federation during the special military operation.

NATO – CHINA

NATO stated that the Alliance does not regard China as an adversary and will continue to engage with it, but that China’s actions undermine NATO’s security, in cluding through the deepening of China’s strategic partnership with Russia, the expansion of its nuclear arsenal and military capabilities, and so on. NATO and the EU’s efforts will be directed towards countering the challenges to Euro-Atlantic security posed by China, including through the development of new military technologies (competition strategy).

Strategy on China (competition strategy): engaging China in strategic stability (preventing a ‘nuclear arms race’) + a ‘conventional arms race’ (including through strengthening partners in the Asia-Pacific region and arming Taiwan) + a ‘technology race’ (NATO+EU+allies) + preserving globalisation (maintaining China’s integration into the global economy).

Declaration:

• China’s ambitions were described as challenging NATO’s interests, security and values; China is not our adversary, we must continue to engage. However, China’s actions undermine our security. China continues to challenge the rules-based international order, refuses to condemn Russia’s war against Ukraine, threatens Taiwan, and continues to build up its military power. China is modernising its nuclear arsenal at a pace and on a scale unprecedented in history.

• are concerned about the expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal;

• have described the deepening strategic partnership between China and Russia as contrary to NATO’s values and interests;

• The EU and NATO will coordinate their actions to counter the challenges to Euro-Atlantic security posed by China. Cooperation with the European Union will contribute to a fairer distribution of the Alliance’s defence expenditure and significantly strengthen NATO’s capabilities in the logistical and civilian spheres, including the fight against disinformation, hybrid threats and cyberattacks, the protection of critical infrastructure, and the development of new military technologies.

Statements:

• all these issues were discussed at a joint meeting in Vilnius with leaders from the EU, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated at the closing press conference of the NATO summit that the North Atlantic Alliance expects China to have 1,500 warheads capable of reaching NATO territory by 2035. The NATO Secretary General noted that the alliance is gradually expanding its defence ties with partners in the Indo-Pacific region.

China’s reaction:

In response to NATO’s statement, published after the first day of the summit in Vilnius, the Chinese diplomatic mission to the EU stated:

• China intends to defend its sovereignty and security, and will resolutely counter any NATO actions that harm the PRC’s legitimate rights and interests.

• China will firmly defend its sovereignty and resolutely oppose NATO’s eastward expansion into the Asia-Pacific region. The diplomatic mission noted that the document adopted at the NATO summit “ s the same old tune, which is rife with Cold War mentality and ideological bias”. The part of the statement relating to China “ignores basic facts, absurdly distorts China’s position and policies, and deliberately discredits China,” the Chinese diplomatic mission stated.

NATO – REGIONS

The Alliance outlined plans for developing relations in various regions, highlighting strategic interests in the Middle East and Africa (where interests overlap with those of China and Russia), including expressing concern over Iran’s malicious actions and its nuclear programme. The Alliance’s course of action and intentions regarding Georgia, Moldova, Serbia and Kosovo were outlined. NATO pledged to strengthen security cooperation with partners in the Asia-Pacific region (overlapping interests with China), condemning the missile and nuclear threat posed by North Korea.

Declaration:

• confirmed the intention to admit Georgia subject to the fulfilment of all standard conditions, including the Membership Action Plan;

• NATO will provide practical assistance to Moldova in the field of defence and security;

• believe that strengthening relations with Serbia would be beneficial to NATO;

• intend to continue contributing to security in Kosovo within the framework of KFOR;

• declared a strategic interest in the Middle East and Africa;

• assured that they would not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons;

• expressed serious concern over Iran’s malicious actions on the territory of allies. They called on Iran to refrain from destabilising actions… and to play a constructive role in promoting regional stability and peace.

• promised to strengthen cooperation with partners in the Asia-Pacific region to address common security challenges;

• Condemned the DPRK’s missile and nuclear programmes; NATO member states also called on Pyongyang to return to dialogue and comply with the requirements of the non-proliferation regime and the IAEA.

Statements:

• NATO’s partners in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) – Australia, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea and Japan – should strengthen their cooperation with one another and with the Alliance. This was emphasised by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol at a four-way meeting with his counterparts from these countries on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius.

• On 11 July 2023, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg adopted a cooperation programme covering 11 areas, including counter-terrorism, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and cyber threats. The parties adopted an Individual Partnership Programme (ITPP) on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius. The previous cooperation programme, adopted in 2012, covered seven areas.

• NATO should maintain partnership relations with countries in the Indo-Pacific region, but the time is not yet ripe for opening alliance offices in this area. This was stated by French President Emmanuel Macron at a press conference following the NATO- summit in Vilnius. “I think we have made the right decision on this – to remain within the framework of close partnership, coordination and close strategic cooperation, but not to seek to ‘expand the theatre of operations’, as now is not the right time for that,” he added.

• At a press conference in Vilnius, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the alliance has not yet abandoned the idea of opening an office in Japan, and that the matter will be considered in the future. Opening a NATO office in Japan would require the unanimous approval of all alliance members. France has the opportunity to block this move, which has been under discussion since 2007.

The NATO summit in Vilnius marks the West’s transition to a multi-tiered system of managing global competition, in which:

• Russia is established as a target for containment and military attrition,

• China is established as a long-term systemic competitor,

• technology becomes the main battleground,

• the alliance is transforming into a global network, rather than merely a regional bloc.

The key point is that NATO is not preparing for a major war, but is establishing a regime of long-term, controlled rivalry, where:

• conflicts are localised (Ukraine),

• competition unfolds globally (technology, the economy),

• and the system of rules itself remains under Western control.

Strategically, this means a shift from ‘security through strength’
→ to security through the management of competition across all dimensions simultaneously.